Solar Cycle 25 Prediction

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MM0TFU
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Solar Cycle 25 Prediction

Unread post by MM0TFU »

There is a new paper doing the rounds which predicts that Solar Cycle 25, which is due to start soon, could be much better than previously predicted. In fact this new prediction claims that SC25 could be one of the strongest for many years.

https://arxiv.org/pdf/2006.15263.pdf


I hope they are correct, but the problem is that getting predictions right is difficult, particularly when they are about the future. :)
Cheers,
Iain.

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VK5TM
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Re: Solar Cycle 25 Prediction

Unread post by VK5TM »

Whereas if you take the view that it will just be average, you're not likely to be disappointed :D
MM0TFU
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Re: Solar Cycle 25 Prediction

Unread post by MM0TFU »

VK5TM wrote: Thu Jul 02, 2020 11:28 am Whereas if you take the view that it will just be average, you're not likely to be disappointed :D
Good point. Well made. ;)
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Iain.

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G6CSL
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Re: Solar Cycle 25 Prediction

Unread post by G6CSL »

It's only a few years back that they were confidently predicting a new Maunder Minimum, and decades of sluggish solar activity.
Sangoma
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Re: Solar Cycle 25 Prediction

Unread post by Sangoma »

To be honest, I'll be please just to be around to see it.

Good radio would be an added bonus :)
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G6CSL
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Re: Solar Cycle 25 Prediction

Unread post by G6CSL »

Even as a 'lowfer' I still hear the effect of no sunspots.

Low-angle night DX is still around on 80m, sometimes 40m, but the fC rarely rises enough for daylight high-angle Inter-G fun on 60m and 40m. It's radically different when the sunspot count rises to just 25 or so.

That's what I'm waiting for to get the kit out of hibernation.
MM0TFU
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Re: Solar Cycle 25 Prediction

Unread post by MM0TFU »

Just an update to this thread which I posted a while back.
If anyone is interested, have a listen to the ICQ Amateur Radio podcast Number 332 (link below), where they have an interview with the scientist who has made the claim that Cycle 25 is going to be one of the strongest cycles on record.
His name is Dr Scott McIntosh and he's from the US National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, CO. but he's a Scotsman, so he must be right enough :)
The interview starts around 1hour 30 minutes. If you just want to hear the prediction and why he thinks he's right, start listening at around 2 hours 05 minutes.
https://www.icqpodcast.com/download-the ... olar-cycle
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Iain.

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G6CSL
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Re: Solar Cycle 25 Prediction

Unread post by G6CSL »

It's like reading tea leaves.
Scientists shouldn't predict. They should observe, measure and record; then use their findings to calibrate their models of reality.

The last three cycles have exhibited a downward trend, but a sample of only three is meaningless.
MM0TFU
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Re: Solar Cycle 25 Prediction

Unread post by MM0TFU »

You should listen to what he has to say Chris.

His predictions are not based on just the last three solar cycles.

It's rare to find a scientist of his standing who makes such a public prediction which puts his credibility and reputation on the line.
It's a bold prediction, but at least we won't have long to wait to find out if he's right.
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Iain.

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G6CSL
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Re: Solar Cycle 25 Prediction

Unread post by G6CSL »

Well, things can only get better. Even a 'mediocre' cycle would suit me, I just wish it would stop farting about.

I've no pretensions of being a 'Scientist' btw. I'm just a long-term space 'fanboy' from the early Apollo days onwards. :)
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