Solar Cycle 25 Prediction

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M3PIE
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Re: Solar Cycle 25 Prediction

Unread post by M3PIE »

Solar Cycle 25 has begun
Solar Cycle 25 is officially underway.
NASA and NOAA made the announcement during a media teleconference earlier today.

According to an international panel of experts, sunspot counts hit rock bottom in Dec. 2019, and have been slowly increasing since.

What can you expect in the months ahead?

Visit Spaceweather.com for answers
MM0TFU
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Re: Solar Cycle 25 Prediction

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I listened to the NASA teleconference and their long-awaited announcement. I had been hoping for a more detailed explanation of the data and methodology they employed and how they came to their consensus, but I was disappointed. It seemed their announcement was aimed at the press corps with the intention of filling a few newspaper column inches, and as appears to be the 'modern way', it had been considerably dumbed down to just above idiot level.

Dr Scott McIntosh, who you might remember made the recent prediction of a much stronger SC25 wasn't impressed by the NASA/NOAA prediction either, according to his Twitter account (swmcintosh). He still favours his version which is unsurprising, and he predicts the solar terminator event will happen soon. If it happens before the end of October 2020, then he stands a good chance of being right. If it happens before mid-February 2021 he will be sort of right, but SC25 might not be as strong as he initially predicted. If it happens March 2021 onwards, then it appears that the NASA/NOAA prediction will be more accurate. So, by early next year we should have a clearer picture of what SC25 holds in store for us.
Cheers,
Iain.

Illegitimi non carborundum
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G6CSL
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Re: Solar Cycle 25 Prediction

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The few sunpots we have had recently have been 'new'-polarity and high latitude, so we can say that the old cycle is done with.

But it's like somebody in January, promising a scorching summer because the solstice has passed. We will get what we are given.
VK5TM
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Re: Solar Cycle 25 Prediction

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Aren't predictions wonderful, just like statistics, you can make them say anything you want.

I predict the sun will have a big barf in five years time :twisted:
MM0TFU
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Re: Solar Cycle 25 Prediction

Unread post by MM0TFU »

Dr Scott McIntosh recently did a Zoom presentation about his predictions for Solar Cycle 25 for a radio club in the US.
It has been recorded and is available to watch (free). It's just over an hour long, with a further Q&A section after that, but if you have any interest in SC25, then it's worthy of taking the time to watch it. The Link to the presentation is below, and then enter the pass code for access.

https://us02web.zoom.us/rec/share/NMlTa ... -6p34nOrmf

Passcode - z7qCn@3G
Cheers,
Iain.

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M3PIE
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Re: Solar Cycle 25 Prediction

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Huge new sunspot
A new sunspot several times wider than Earth is rotating over the sun's eastern limb today. This brings the sunspot count to its highest level in years, and more sunspots appear to be in the offing.

Solar Cycle 25 is clearly gaining steam.

For the full story, visit today's edition of Spaceweather.com.
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M3PIE
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Re: Solar Cycle 25 Prediction

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Noctilucent clouds are back (earlier than expected)
High above the Arctic Circle, something unusual is happening.

Summertime noctilucent clouds (NLCs) have formed ahead of schedule, surprising sky watchers in Europe with sightings at latitudes as low as 50 degrees.

What's going on up there? Find out @ Spaceweather.com.
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M3PIE
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Re: Solar Cycle 25 Prediction

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Solar flare frenzy and CME
On Saturday, the sun produced a sequence of solar flares unlike anything we've seen in years.

Earth-orbiting satellites detected a dozen explosions in the magnetic canopy of sunspot AR2824.
One of them emitted a radio burst so strong, it drowned out static from lightning storms on Earth and was recorded at midnight by listening stations in the Arctic.

NOAA forecast models suggest that a CME might hit Earth's magnetic field on May 26th.

Full story @ Spaceweather.com.
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M3PIE
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Re: Solar Cycle 25 Prediction

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Interplanetary shock wave sparks midsummer auroras
A minor interplanetary shock wave jolted Earth's magnetic field during the early hours of June 30th, sparking rare midsummer auroras over Canada and some northern-tier US states.

It might have been the edge of a CME originally expected to arrive on July 1st. If not, another jolt could occur in the next 24 hours.

Full story @ Spaceweather.com
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M3PIE
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Re: Solar Cycle 25 Prediction

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First X-flare in 4 years
A new sunspot emerged during the early hours of July 3rd and promptly exploded, producing the first X-class solar flare since Sept. 2017.

X-flares are the most powerful kind, and this one caused a strong shortwave radio blackout over the Atlantic Ocean.

Updates to this developing story will be posted throughout the weekend @ Spaceweather.com.
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